Trading Deadline: Chicago Cubs Trade Bait

The Chicago Cubs appears to be "sellers" at the trading deadline this year. The team seems to be going nowhere with players getting older and wave of youth starting to crack the 40-man roster. The deadline only 72 hours away, so it's crunch time. Who are the players the Cubs are dangling out there and which Cubbie said that he would not accept a trade to another team? Will the new owner, Ricketts, decide to have a "fire sale" and scrap team for youth?

Ted Lilly - Lilly is the most talked about trade piece the Cubs are currently shopping. He is in the last year of his contract and he's having a solid season. He has been the most consistent pitcher on the staff since they signed him a few years ago. Chicago has even made it clear that they would eat much of Lilly's remaining money left on his contract this year to get the best deal. I see him going to the Mets or another fringe contender, possibly the Twins (no rumor of him going to Minnesota is out there, just think that he would be a good fit).

Derrek Lee - He was rumored to be heading out of town since he is also in the last year of his contract. The Los Angeles Angels apparently had a deal in place for him, but he declined it. He wants to play out his contract with Chicago. I'm not sure if he'll be looking to re-sign with the Cubs this off-season, but he will demand a decent contract.

Carlos Zambrano - The Cubs would LOVE to move Zambrano and his temper out of Chicago. He will be the hardest person on the team to move because of his performance of late and the remaining amout of money that he has left on his contract. The Cubs want to just dump his salary, but they could be left eating much of it, if they want to trade him.

Alfonso Soriano - With the emergence of Tyler Colvin, the Cubs would like to move Soriano and his inflated contract. His contract was backloaded, which means that most of his money will be paid out towards the end of his deal. This will make it nearly impossible for him to be moved. If Soriano was a better fielder, they could easier move him back to 2B, where he played as a member of the Yankees. He has lost a step and his fielding is on par with Manny Ramirez. It would be impossible to trade Soriano right now, but if he starts off hot in 2011, there could be suitors.

Xavier Nady - Early in the season, the rumors started circulating that some teams were looking for a mid-level outfielder with power. Nady was one of the names that was mentioned, but with his recent plummet in his numbers and losing a number of at-bats to Colvin, it doesn't look like Nady would be someone that a contender would be targeting. Nady needs ample at-bats to be comfortable at the plate, he hasn't had much success has a pinch-hitter. If the Cubs trade Nady, it would be for a low-level prospect at this point.

Hopefully Chicago can pull off some trades and restock their slim farm system. At the beginning of the year, only Houston had a worse farm system in the NL Central. The Cubs are headed towards rebuilding and let's hope they get it right this time.

Why Terrell Owens Won't Be On The Jets

I know all of the New York Jets fans are excited for the upcoming season. You overachieved last season and a few players emerged as future stars in this league. You spent the off-season acquiring high-profile players in hopes of making a championship run this year. The rumor is that the Jets are now targeting Terrell Owens to sign with the team. Why would the Jets sign T.O. when they already have a wide-receiving corps able to handle the "run-first" offense? Here are some of the reasons why Ownes will not be playing for the Jets this season.

First, you have to look at the wide-receiving corps and realize that there isn't any room for him on the roster. He would be steaming on the sidelines waiting for a 4-wide set to be called. Mark Sanchez already has Santonio Holmes, Braylon Edwards, Jerricho Cotchery, Dustin Keller, David Clowney, and Brad Smith to catch the ball. I know Holmes will have to sit out the first few games this season, but when he comes back, he would jump right into that #1 or #2 receiving role. Sanchez isn't going to be out there throwing the ball 40 times a game. Rex Ryan will still be trying to manage the game and let his defense win games.

Next up, the sheer thought of having Braylon Edwards and Terrell Owens on the same team is spine-tingling. How many balls would this duo total? 40? It would be a safer bet to throw screen passes to LaDanian Tomlinson and let him get his usual 2.5 yards (he's washed up).

The Jets can't turn into the Washington Redskins and try to sign free-agents who are 2-3 years past their prime. It will get butts in the seats, but from what I know about NFL games, only the Jacksonville Jaguars have trouble in that department. Fans will go to Jets games and scream "J-E-T-S Jets, Jets, Jets" even if their starting quarterback was Justin Bieber and "The Situation" was their running back.

The chemistry of the team is important, especially one that goes into a season with high hopes. If they start out the year 2-3 or 3-4, people of T.O.'s ilk will start trying to motivate the team and there will be too many chiefs and not enough indians. You can't load a team up with veterans with a young quarterback. Sanchez will have to start being the leader of this team and get into the faces of players trying to cause trouble. I'm not sure if T.O. could handle another young quarterback trying to get into his face.

The Jets will be a good team this season, no doubt about it. They shouldn't be trying to reach. Their team is solid and they should just stand pat. Who knows, all of this could just be driven by the PR Machine of Drew Rosenhaus. He could be trying to drive up the price that the Cincinnati Bengals have to pay to sign Owens. The Bengals and Rams were the only two teams in the hunt a few days ago, and it appears that the Rams have fell out of the running. If that is the case, Rosenhaus, you got me again...show T.O. the money!

I Hate Joe Theismann

BenMaller.com, which is a rumors page ran by the weekend late-night radio host for Fox Sports Radio, posted a rumor about Joe Theismann that has left me speechless. He is rumored to be in the running to replace Pat Haden as the color commentator for Notre Dame games on NBC. Haden left to be the athletic director at his alma mater, USC, so a replacement will need to be added by this fall. Can I go an entire season without driving to South Bend and cussing out Theismann? Let's find out...it could be a long season

I have had a long history of hate when it comes to Joe Theismann. I am too young to remember his playing days, but listening to him as a color commentary analyst during football games have been atrocious. He worked on the broadcast of ESPN's "Sunday Night Football" from 1988 to 2005 and then one failed year on "Monday Night Football" when ESPN bought the rights. The sheer tone of his voice leads to the hairs standing up on my arms and a rise of my blood pressure by 20%.

I know that I am over-reacting and I am a bit tongue-in-cheek about it, but I just think that he isn't good at his job. He is too critical of the teams and often tries to overshadow the game by hogging airtime away from the play-by-play commentator. There was a reason why ESPN let him go from MNF, he clashes with nearly ever on-air personality. He doesn't clash on a personal level, I've never heard anything about him not getting along with crew, but his style doesn't fit with many people. Tom Hammond is the play-by-play commentator for Notre Dame broadcast and he is a true professional. He has covered nearly everything on NBC sports from football to the Olympics. If Theismann is chosen as Haden's replacement, I'm sure Hammond will do his best to make it work.

I guess I am a little biased when it comes to how critical Theismann is on the teams during the games. He has called many Indianapolis Colts games over the years and all the quarterbacks during that time, Jeff George to Peyton Manning, he has ripped for not being polished. Yes, he ripped Manning for not being polished, even though this was early in his career, it's ridiculous. Anyone who has watched a game in which he is broadcasting knows how worked up I get, it's almost comical.

Theismann isn't the only former Notre Dame album rumored for this position, but is the only one that has national appeal. I hate to say this, but he would probably be the best choice if Notre Dame is looking to increase their ratings.

I hate Joe Theismann.


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Possible White Boys The Pacers Can Sign

It's a running joke here that the Indiana Pacers love their white guys. Larry Bird seems to have a crush on un-athletic white boys who "hustle" and are "scappy." If David Eckstein played basketball, Bird would sign him today. There are plenty of eligible candidates out there that are of the pale variety, here are some options that could end up rocking the yellow and navy next season and beyond.

Brian Scalabrine - unrestricted - Scalabrine was close to becoming a member of the Pacers before last season. Indiana and Boston tried to workout a sign & trade with Marquis Daniels, but Indiana refused to take Tony Allen. He had some past run-ins with authorities and the Pacers have been shy to take on players with a record since the Palace Brawl. I think Scalabrine would be a nice option once they trade Jeff Foster or Troy Murphy before the trading deadline this season.

Adam Morrison - unrestricted - I really wouldn't know what to do if Bird signed Morrison. I think more Adam Morrison jokes have been posted on this site than about any other player. I guess it would be karma showing its ugly head that I would have to see him shoot 29% from the field as a member of the Pacers. Please God...don't ever let him on the Pacers!

Joe Alexander - unrestricted - As much as I want a guy with the nickname "Vanilla Thunder" on the Pacers, I couldn't stomach it. We already have a guy that can only hit a shot within 3 feet of the basket (Josh McRoberts) and he barely sniffs the hardwood. They might as well give him an ergonomic chair on the bench, wouldn't want him to have circulation issues.

Steve Novak - unrestricted - The Pacers already have an older version of Novak and his name is Troy Murphy. Murphy has improved his rebounding over the last few years, but Novak will always be known as the "tall kid that could hit 3-pointers when Dwyane Wade was at Marquette."

Shavlik Randolph - unrestricted - NO MORE DUKE PLAYERS! The Pacers love Duke players and I can't stand it. I dislike Duke and somehow I am tricked into liking them because they are on the Pacers. It's a cruel, cruel trick the world plays on me.

Brian Cardinal - unrestricted - Is it sad that Cardinal is 6'8 and it wouldn't surprise me if he couldn't get touch the net? He looks like he should be playing on your father's recreation league team. I don't know how he ever managed to make it in the NBA, but he has been paid very well over his career.

Chris Quinn - unrestricted - I actually wouldn't mind if the Pacers signed Quinn. He reminds me of Travis Diener and he did a decent job with the team. They need depth at point guard and I don't know if transforming Lance Stephenson into a point guard is the correct move.

Jason Williams - unrestricted - Speaking of decent point guard options, Williams would probably be the leading candidate in this bunch. I doubt he would want to play in Indiana, but I think he still has some tread on his tires. Plus, imagine if Indiana signed Joe Alexander and Williams, you would have a "Vanilla Thunder" and "White Chocolate" combo, sounds like a Blizzard at Dairy Queen.

Louis Amundson - unrestricted - Out of all these candidates, I believe Admundson could receive a Brian Cardinal-like contract from a team that fell in love with his play the last few weeks of the season. He had a productive portion of the season when Robin Lopez was banged up. The Pacers probably won't be able to afford him and I think Phoenix should probably lock him up.

Travis Diener - unrestricted - He already had his shot with the Pacers. He filled in as a nice option at the time, but clearly he wasn't in their long-term plans. Maybe he can be a minimum contract option for the Heat. He did play with Wade and Novak at Marquette with success.

Well, I know the Pacers don't have much room under the salary cap and signing a player this off-season could be a long-shot. Once they trade their expiring contracts before the deadline, they could be in need to sign cheap replacements, so these guys could end up on the team if they don't land with another team this off-season.

I can't say this enough, please, please don't sign Adam Morrison. I mean look at the guy!

McGrady Would Be Nice Fit For Bulls

The Chicago Bulls are rumored to be interested in signing Tracy McGrady. The 31-year old has been on the shelf with injuries over the last few seasons, but has shown the ability to score points in a hurry in the past. Would he accept a bench role for a chance to make it out of the first-round of the playoffs? Would he accept a a one-year, incentive based, low salary deal? Those questions are yet to be answered, but I believe he would be a nice fit on the young Bulls team.

The Bulls have been very active this off-season and they are making a push to be contenders this season. They have had the moniker of "team on the rise" over the last three seasons, but with the addition of Carlos Boozer, Kyle Korver, and Ronnie Brewer, they are becoming a very deep team. Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah had career years last season and they are yet to hit their prime. The Bulls know that the window for this team is a few seasons, but that could change with key injuries.

McGrady, who is still younger than his body seems to be, could mentor some of the players on the team and help them mature. He has been a leader on some very good teams, but has always fell short of making it out of the first-round. The only season in which his team made is past the first-round, was when he was injured and couldn't play. The risk of signing McGrady would be his knee. He had microfracture surgery and it usually takes two years for a player to regain his prior form or it never comes back at all. Amar'e Stoudamire had the surgery two seasons ago and he came out in 2009-10 and had a very productive year. He is a success story, but with that story come many others that aren't as positive. Chris Webber had the surgery and even though he was solid when coming back, he was never the same. Age could be to blame in Webber's case, but having the microfracture surgery couldn't have helped.

Signing a player who has a history of injuries is very risky. It usually doesn't work out and with the guaranteed contracts in the NBA, it's a chance that many GMs don't want to take. The one example of an injury-plagued player bouncing back later in his career is Grant Hill. He basically had his ankle completely reconstructed and had various other injuries when he was with the Orlando Magic. He signed a very cheap deal to resurrect his career with the Phoenix Suns and he has had a second-life with the team. I hope McGrady has the same luck, because he was such a phenomenal scorer during his prime, it would be a shame that an injury could shorten his career.

How A Woman Nearly Took The "Sweet" Out Of Good Ole' Sweetbob

I usually try to keep my personal life out of this blog, but I have to explain my hiatus from updating this blog. I owe it to the readers who have been loyal to me over the last 2 1/2 years. I am ready to lay everything out on front street and move on. I promise that this will be my only post about my personal life. I'm sure the next post will be something about how the Chicago Cubs have ruined my life or how much I hate the Steelers. This should be a pretty epic post. Enjoy!

I don't know where to begin exactly, but I dated a girl for almost two years. It was a fun time, mostly, but it was kind of jacked for a good portion. I did a lot of writing during the time of our relationship and I grew this blog into a something that I was proud of. The blog went from maybe 100 readers a day to a few thousand a day and being linked by Sports Illustrated and few other well-known websites. Well, in February of this year, we broke up and I lost my motivation to write. I didn't see how I could write about the lighter side of sports and make my readers laugh, when I was having a hard time focusing on anything going on in my daily life. My ex hated that I would write and it would take time away from time with her. I blamed my writing for the demise of my relationship. I had obligations with Fanball to write about the Indiana Pacers and Columbus Blue Jackets. Those posts became harder and harder to write, I was suffering from an extreme case of writer's block. I went out and purchased books on the subject, I tried yoga, I ran out of things to cure the block. It was affecting many parts of my life, it was a complete creativity block. I decided that I had to completely step away from my online writing activity so I can work on myself.

I started writing a fiction book about a year or so ago. I've went through different ideas and pitched a lot of material, because I couldn't really get going on it at all. I hated everything that I would put down on paper. I was stuck at the brainstorming level and I needed a change of scenery. I decided to find a bar in the area that wasn't busy, so I could write in a place away from my desk. It was a Friday night and in Columbus, Ohio, it was a difficult task to find a bar that wasn't packed. I decided to go to a small bar near my place, that decision was the beginning of the end of my writer's block. I met someone that was interested in what I was doing and has really became a motivator to move on with the pursuit of my writing career. Well, a few days ago, she wanted me to write her something, because she has never read anything that I have written. It took me a few hours, but I finally got enough nerve to put some things on paper and it was an avalanche of ideas and emotion. Since I have written that for her, I've had a rush of creativity and new ideas. I've had a creativity boner for the past few days, think I should consult my physician?

I have had small hiatuses on this site and I have explained each one to my readers. There have not been any of them quite this long and I hope that this will be my last hiatus of any length. I realize that I am not solving life's problems with my writing, I just hope to give a snarky view of the world of sports and maybe some posts on betting lines (for entertainment purposes only, wink wink). I am not a sports betting handicapper, but I have always received positive feedback on my posts in the past.

I want to thank everyone for the kind words of encouragement and questions I have received on Twitter about when I am going to return to the blog. I just want to thank some of my friends that have been supportive in any way over the last few months. I want to list them (sorry this may bore you, but I promise you that there will be a payoff at the end of this post). I want to thank James, Kris1010, Peter, George, Laura, Amanda, Liz, Carrie, PJ (who needs Twitter), Cheryl, Fought, Carlos, Aron, ChadBev, Ryan & Chrissy, Laurie, Mehg, Bryan & Heather, Stuckey, my family, my blogger amigos, and Kriston, who helped me a few months ago and I'm not sure if I would be in this current state if I didn't walk into her bar on April 23rd, 2010. I probably missed a few people, for that I am sorry. A special thanks goes out to the entire #beerfamily, you have all helped me. I am glad that I drove to Granville, OH a few months ago, it has changed my life for the better.

Well, that's all the emo shit that this site can handle. Time to be snarky and do something that would have pissed off my ex. She hated when I would post pictures of beautiful woman and especially anything related to Katy Perry. She claimed that I had a crush on her. First, who doesn't? Second, I know my readers enjoy my random pretty lady pictures I like to throw into a post. Here goes nothing and thanks again for your continued support, enjoy!




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As he did once before, in 2005, prolific baseball analyst and writer Bill James has just e-mailed me a write-up he's done on a hot hand-related topic, with permission to post it here, if I choose. The topic this time is pitching, namely the question, "If a starting pitcher has been pitching well in his recent starts, is he more likely to pitch well today?" James describes three separate studies he conducted to investigate this question. Because his write-up is 19 pages long, I'll just summarize the main parts.

Key to the whole endeavor is defining how well a given pitcher is doing, both in a particular game and over his last few starts. Here are some foundational definitions:

Game Scores are a method that “score” each start by a starting pitcher essentially on a zero-to-one-hundred scale. To convert this into a “Hot Pitcher Scale”, each pitcher’s score after each game (and thus, heading into his next start) was 20% of his score from his last start, plus 80% of whatever his score was prior to his last start.

The first study, using all pitchers from 1960-1969, created two dimensions, both coded from A (best) to H (worst): performance quality for a given season (to equate pitchers on prior ability), and "hotness" coming into a game. Pitchers were then evaluated on how well they pitched in their next games. Summarizes James:

...at the conclusion of this I had 64 groups of pitchers, coded AA, AB, AC, AD, AE, AF, AG, AH, BA, BB. . ..HE, HF, HG, HH. AA was high-quality pitchers who came into the game hot; HH was low-quality pitchers who came into the game pitching badly, even by their own standards. We had about 500 starts in each group of games. The essential question was whether and to what extent pitchers would pitch better, relative to the quality of their overall performance, when they were “hot” than when they were “cold”.

They did not pitch better.

The second study, using all starting pitchers from 2000-2009, looked for temporal sequencing; did a given hurler's well (or poorly) pitched games tend to cluster consecutively? (This approach is conceptually similar to a statistical technique known as the runs test.)

"Is there, in general, any tendency for Game Scores to form clusters? None whatsoever."

James's third investigation, again examining 2000-2009, "compared pitchers with identical or near-identical year-to-date records, but one of whom came into the start hotter than the other." There were 504 matched pairs. Finally, in this study, support was obtained for pitcher streakiness:

In this study the pitchers who were “hot” did out-perform the pitchers who were not hot in their next starts, and over the balance of the season —- not by a huge amount, but they did outperform them. The “hot” pitchers, in their 504 “next starts”, had a won-lost record of 199-175, an ERA of 4.28, and an average Game Score of 50.62.

The “cold” pitchers, in their 504 next starts, had a won-lost record of 177-177, an ERA of 4.74, and an average Game Score of 47.94.

James concludes with a piece of practical advice for fans:

...suppose that you are going to a ballgame tomorrow, and both starting pitchers are 11-7 with ERAs of 3.45, but one of them is hot and the other is cold. Is the one who is “hot” more likely to win the game?

Yes.

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Northern Ireland's 21-year-old golf phenom Rory McIlroy had an amazing hot spell during today's first round of the British Open, a tournament he leads with his 9-under-par 63. Within a seven-hole stretch, McIlroy bettered par six times, five times by one stroke (a birdie) and once by two strokes (an eagle). Here's the sequence:
 
Hole Result
 
  9 Eagle
10 Birdie
11 Birdie
12 Birdie
13 Par
14 Birdie
15 Birdie

UPDATE: McIlroy fell out of contention on the tournament's second day, thanks to a round of 80 in high winds. He rebounded with scores of 69 and 68, respectively, on the final two days, however, to finish tied for third place, eight shots behind winner Louis Oosthuizen.

The American League's 13-year unbeaten streak in the Major League Baseball All-Star Game (12 wins plus the infamous 2002 tie game) ended tonight, as the National League took a 3-1 decision. As noted on the Wikipedia page on the topic:

"The All-Star Game has seen several 'eras' in which one league tended to dominate. From 1933 to 1949, the American League won 12 out of the first 16. The National League dominated from 1950 to 1987, winning 33 of 42 with 1 tie. This included a stretch from 1963-1982 when it won 19 of 20, including an 11-game win streak [that] went from 1972 to 1982. Since the late 1980s, the American League has dominated..."

You may have noticed the oddity of there being 42 games in the 38-year period from 1950-1987. From 1959-1962, two All-Star Games were held per season.