By finishing off the Tampa Bay Rays in Wednesday night's rain-delayed World Series finale, Philadelphia Phillies' closer Brad Lidge achieved relief-pitcher perfection on the "Save" statistic.
Combining regular-season (41 games) and post-season (7 games) play, every time Lidge had the opportunity to protect a Phillies' lead at the end, he succeeded. He thus ended up a perfect 48-for-48 on save opportunities.
A few years ago as a member of the Houston Astros, the 6-foot-5 right-hander was so powerful at the end of games that the team's middle/set-up relievers knew that their job was to provide a "Bridge to Lidge." As noted in this article:
With Houston in 2004, [Lidge] averaged 15 strikeouts per nine innings. In the seven-game National League Championship Series loss to St. Louis, he held the Cardinals to one hit in his eight innings...
The Astros and Cardinals met again in the next year's NLCS, and when Houston was one out from the World Series, Lidge gave up a game-deciding homer to Albert Pujols. Houston won the pennant in the next game, but somehow, Lidge seemed to become better known for that Pujols homer than for all his good work.
For now, at least, it looks like the "Heartbreak Lidge" moniker he obtained in Houston will likely be a thing of the past.
One week from tonight, two of college football's hottest teams (both undefeated) and most hot-handed quarterbacks will do battle when the University of Texas plays at Texas Tech.
The Red Raiders' Graham Harrell hit on 22 of his first 24 passes today, as Tech routed Kansas 63-21. The game was once tied 14-14 before the Red Raiders scored 49 straight points. The Jayhawks, fans will recall, won the Orange Bowl and finished as the No. 7-ranked team in the nation last season. Although clearly not as good this year, KU came into the game ranked 19th in the nation, thus serving as a quality opponent for Texas Tech.
The Longhorns' Colt McCoy has been similarly scintillating. As this ESPN.com article notes:
Through Texas' first six possessions Saturday [in a 28-24 win over previously unbeaten Oklahoma State], McCoy was ridiculously good. He led the Horns to four touchdowns and completed 30 of 33 passes including a school-record 18 straight at one point. Go back to last week's dissection of Missouri and McCoy was 59 of 65 (91 percent accuracy) across a span of 15 possessions, with a couple of drops and batted balls in there. On those drives Texas scored 77 points.
The Red Raiders' Graham Harrell hit on 22 of his first 24 passes today, as Tech routed Kansas 63-21. The game was once tied 14-14 before the Red Raiders scored 49 straight points. The Jayhawks, fans will recall, won the Orange Bowl and finished as the No. 7-ranked team in the nation last season. Although clearly not as good this year, KU came into the game ranked 19th in the nation, thus serving as a quality opponent for Texas Tech.
The Longhorns' Colt McCoy has been similarly scintillating. As this ESPN.com article notes:
Through Texas' first six possessions Saturday [in a 28-24 win over previously unbeaten Oklahoma State], McCoy was ridiculously good. He led the Horns to four touchdowns and completed 30 of 33 passes including a school-record 18 straight at one point. Go back to last week's dissection of Missouri and McCoy was 59 of 65 (91 percent accuracy) across a span of 15 possessions, with a couple of drops and batted balls in there. On those drives Texas scored 77 points.
Inspired, presumably, by Boston's amazing comeback from a 7-0 deficit to win Game 5 of the American League Championship Series against Tampa Bay (although ultimately not the series), Tom Tango has just written a piece at Hardball Times probing the historical record of similar comebacks. Does evidence exist for comeback wins inspired by what the article calls "in-game momentum"?
Specifically, Tango identified games in which a team rallied from five or more runs down to tie a game, but not take the lead before the end of the inning. The idea is that the game would now have been back to square one -- dead even -- but one team would have had the momentum. Tango then investigated how often the latter team went on to win the game by scoring in a later inning, which might be seen as a sign of momentum on the part of the team that tied the game (or demoralization on the part of the team that squandered the lead).
Tango finds evidence that teams coming back from five or more runs have won games with a slightly greater frequency than that of teams coming back from smaller deficits (and thus with lesser momentum). However, he urges caution as follows:
...don't forget that we're talking extreme momentum here; in-game momentum in which the team scored five runs in an inning to tie the game. One must believe that the effect of momentum must be even less day-to-day.
Specifically, Tango identified games in which a team rallied from five or more runs down to tie a game, but not take the lead before the end of the inning. The idea is that the game would now have been back to square one -- dead even -- but one team would have had the momentum. Tango then investigated how often the latter team went on to win the game by scoring in a later inning, which might be seen as a sign of momentum on the part of the team that tied the game (or demoralization on the part of the team that squandered the lead).
Tango finds evidence that teams coming back from five or more runs have won games with a slightly greater frequency than that of teams coming back from smaller deficits (and thus with lesser momentum). However, he urges caution as follows:
...don't forget that we're talking extreme momentum here; in-game momentum in which the team scored five runs in an inning to tie the game. One must believe that the effect of momentum must be even less day-to-day.
Song Of The Day - Innerpartysystem (Don't Stop)
Electronic-based music has been creeping into my ears the last few years. Innerpartysystem is more of a electronic-punk group, which is kind of a contradiction. Punk music derived from a stripped down DIY approach and electronic music takes very little instrumentation, since most of the music is mathematically-driven. I'm not saying that this band aren't musicians, many of them play instruments, but they do have plenty of loops played over their instrumentation.
Innerpartysystem is a fairly new band that signed onto Stolen Transmission, which helped bands like The Killers achieve success. Their self-titled album is doing fairly well and their single "Don't Stop" has a pretty cool video. They kind of remind me of Orgy if Orgy was still relevant or even together.
Here is the video for "Don't Stop."
Innerpartysystem is a fairly new band that signed onto Stolen Transmission, which helped bands like The Killers achieve success. Their self-titled album is doing fairly well and their single "Don't Stop" has a pretty cool video. They kind of remind me of Orgy if Orgy was still relevant or even together.
Here is the video for "Don't Stop."
Song Of The Day - Akon & T-Pain (Right Now)
My birthday was yesterday and I had a lot of fun. We had people over and it was one of the better birthdays I've had in a long time. My roommate made a playlist of music that played throughout the night. There were a lot of Lil Wayne, Kanye West, and of course Akon & T-Pain.
The song "Right Now" is pretty good, almost surprising that Akon can do this good of a job at writing lyrics. This is coming from a guy who wrote a song about how he wants to "eff you," but was switched to "love you" and it became a hit. I like what T-Pain has done to hip-hop, but he also cheapens it a little. By singing into a voice modifier, it can even make a guy like Lil Wayne sound like he can sing a little. I'm sure T-Pain and Akon will be major players in the music business for many years to come.
Go out and buy "The Usual Suspects" album, it's pretty good, this is coming from a guy who rarely endorses hip-hop. Here is the audio for "Right Now" by Akon & T-Pain.
The song "Right Now" is pretty good, almost surprising that Akon can do this good of a job at writing lyrics. This is coming from a guy who wrote a song about how he wants to "eff you," but was switched to "love you" and it became a hit. I like what T-Pain has done to hip-hop, but he also cheapens it a little. By singing into a voice modifier, it can even make a guy like Lil Wayne sound like he can sing a little. I'm sure T-Pain and Akon will be major players in the music business for many years to come.
Go out and buy "The Usual Suspects" album, it's pretty good, this is coming from a guy who rarely endorses hip-hop. Here is the audio for "Right Now" by Akon & T-Pain.
Labels:
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"The Bodyguard" (Not Starring Whitney Houston)
Pacman, I mean, Adam Jones seems to be in trouble with the NFL. I am not quite sure what the problem is, I really don't at all. Allegedly, Pacman and a bodyguard that was hired to keep him out of trouble, got in a tussle in a hotel bathroom. They went to a Ludacris concert and there is a possibility of some alcohol being involved. I'm still not seeing a problem here.
A mirror was broken in the bathroom and no charges were filed and a police report wasn't even written. The bodyguard and Jones was said to be goofing around and then suddenly things went bad and that's when the argument/girl fight occurred.
I have a few problems with this even being a story. First of all, this bodyguard was working for the Dallas Cowboys to watch over Pacman. I am only assuming, but I hope this dude was either as big or bigger than an O-Lineman. Secondly, if this dude was big, and I'm pretty sure he had to be, how was this even a fight? Pacman is 5'9 at best and couldn't weigh more than 200 lbs. I know he has some "street" in him, but was he packing a weapon to even make it a fair fight? I want to see a picture of the bodyguard and that would pretty much end the conversation. If the bodyguard couldn't take care of a short cornerback, how could he hope to guard him from anyone of average stature and weight? Was this bodyguard Tony Mandarich or Robert Gallery? Anyone could get buy those guys.
I want everyone to stop talking about this story. Pacman Jones, yes I said it, is an average defensive back and doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things for the Cowboys. He is an excellent returner, but he isn't even doing that for Dallas, Felix Jones has that job. Jerry Jones shouldn't worry about Pacman and if anything remotely happens like this again, I hope he cuts him. They are going to battle this season to earn a playoff spot. The NFC East is a beast and one of those teams won't make the playoffs and all these distractions will only hurt the team.
A mirror was broken in the bathroom and no charges were filed and a police report wasn't even written. The bodyguard and Jones was said to be goofing around and then suddenly things went bad and that's when the argument/girl fight occurred.
I have a few problems with this even being a story. First of all, this bodyguard was working for the Dallas Cowboys to watch over Pacman. I am only assuming, but I hope this dude was either as big or bigger than an O-Lineman. Secondly, if this dude was big, and I'm pretty sure he had to be, how was this even a fight? Pacman is 5'9 at best and couldn't weigh more than 200 lbs. I know he has some "street" in him, but was he packing a weapon to even make it a fair fight? I want to see a picture of the bodyguard and that would pretty much end the conversation. If the bodyguard couldn't take care of a short cornerback, how could he hope to guard him from anyone of average stature and weight? Was this bodyguard Tony Mandarich or Robert Gallery? Anyone could get buy those guys.
I want everyone to stop talking about this story. Pacman Jones, yes I said it, is an average defensive back and doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things for the Cowboys. He is an excellent returner, but he isn't even doing that for Dallas, Felix Jones has that job. Jerry Jones shouldn't worry about Pacman and if anything remotely happens like this again, I hope he cuts him. They are going to battle this season to earn a playoff spot. The NFC East is a beast and one of those teams won't make the playoffs and all these distractions will only hurt the team.
Chicago Cubs - A Year-End Report - Batters
It was another roller-coaster ride for all the fans of the Chicago Cubs. They nearly won 100 games this season and yet couldn't even garner a single win in the post-season. The Los Angeles Dodgers was just a better team and the Cubs didn't show up at all. I don't really know how to take the last two post-season exits. There wasn't anything that screamed "curse," "Billy Goat," or "Bartman. The Diamondbacks and Dodgers were teams that turned it on at the right time and clearly the Cubs were content with just making the playoffs.
I'm going to be commenting on the Outfielders and Infielders on the 40-man roster of the Cubs. I will be evaluating their year and possibly if they are needed for next season.
Alfonso Soriano - The Cubs paid a great deal for him a season ago and over the past two years, he hasn't been completely healthy. I am not sure if he will ever be a 35/35 guy again, but the power numbers should still be there. Soriano needs to be pushed down to the 2nd, 3rd, or 6th in the order in order for the Cubs to turn the corner in the playoffs. He has demanded being kept in the lead-off spot, but something needs to be shaken up. The Cubs needs to acquire a left-handed lead-off bat with a high .OBP.
Kosuke Fukudome - Fukudome started out the season on fire, he was nearly batting .400 much into the first month. He hit a wall around the All-Star break and batted around .200 the rest of the way. His defense kept him in the lineup, but he clearly hurt the Cubs down the stretch. The Cubs would be much-improved if they went out and got a power bat to play right field and used Fukudome off the bench. Fukudome was a bit of an oddity, most Japanese players tend own pitchers in the States for a high .OBP. Fukudome has proven that he has a decent eye, but he sometimes looks horrible while striking out.
Jim Edmonds - Edmonds played well for the Cubs, but he isn't a long-term fix for their center field position. He would be nice to hold onto next season for some at-bats, but clearly shouldn't be a starter next year. He can hit homers, when needed, but his average will be around .250, at best.
Reed Johnson - He was a spark plug for the Cubs after they acquired him mid-season. I watched many Cubs games and in the games that he played, he always made a big catch or had a key hit. I like him better than Edmonds in center, but Pinella didn't use him down the stretch this season. I am not sure if he is in Pinella's doghouse or if he trusted Edmonds more as the season progressed.
Felix Pie - Pie has speed and can cover a lot of ground in center. He hasn't figured out major-league pitching yet and I'm starting to lose hope. He was sent down to Triple-A mid-season and he did very well, even showed some power. He could be trade bait this off-season, but I would like to see him get a chance in spring training and prove he deserves a spot.
Sam Fuld - He didn't show up in the majors this year and probably best known for running full speed into the brick wall at Wrigley in 2007. Pie beat him out of a center field spot in spring training and Fuld struggled at the plate and a hand injury troubled him. He will be at spring training to see what he can bring to the team.
Ronny Cedeno - Lou Pinella seems to be high on this guy. He is mostly used as a pinch-runner, but Cedeno was in the line-up a little more than he should be. He started out the year pretty well, but fell off at the end. He is trade bait with the emergence of Mike Fontenot and Ryan Theriot playing so well.
Mark DeRosa - He has done everything for the Cubs, I'm surprised he hasn't been called upon to work the front gate at Wrigley. I like him as a full-time replacement in right field, but I'm unsure of Mike Fontenot can play everyday at 2nd. DeRosa can play nearly every infield spot and has proven himself as a potential big-money free agent after next season. The Cubs need to make sure they work on a contract to keep him around.
Derrek Lee - I'm not saying that he had an off-year, but the expectations were definitely high coming into the year. The wrist injury that hampered him the last few seasons was 100% healed and a few even picked him as possible MVP candidate going into this year (John Kruk). He hit nearly 20 homers and had a batting average that fluttered around .290-.300 all season. Maybe this is the real D-Lee that the Cubs got from Florida, not the player that tore up pitchers a few season ago. I am just not sure which player will show up from here on out.
Mike Fontenot - This guy looks like he should be a jockey, but could he possibly turn into Dustin Pedroia? He has had moments where he looks like a starter, but it is still unknown if he could put up numbers as an everyday player. For a guy of his stature, he has a swing that could hit 20+ homers a season. It would be a risky move to give him the starter's job at 2nd and move DeRosa to right field. If this team was a .500 team, it would be easy to give the keys to the car to a young player, but the Cubs have high expectations and Fontenot may be a victim of not being given a fair shot.
Micah Hoffpauir - He is a proven minor-league player and was given a shot near the end of the season to come off the bench and had a few shot at starting. He is a natural 1st basemen, but with Derrek Lee secure at the job, Hoffpauir could be moved to right or be trade bait. He clearly has the ability to play in the Majors, but unless an injury, he could be stuck.
Aramis Ramirez - He was the leader of the Cubs this season and was the MVP of the team. He didn't show up in the playoffs, but he did so much for the team this year. Ramirez has the ability to be a 40/120 guy, I think he should keep improving. It may take a contract year to get that productivity out of him, but he will be a top 3 third -basemen in this league. His defense is suspect, but his bat makes his errors go away a little.
Ryan Theriot - He's a .300 hitter, steal bases, has a decent .OBP, but somehow he isn't the lead-off hitter. If the Cubs don't acquire a pure lead-off guy, Theriot needs to be at the top of the lineup. He kind of fell into the shortstop position, but I don't see him losing the job anytime soon. Theriot looks like a future all-star and should be in Chicago for awhile.
Daryle Ward - He is the Lenny Harris of the Chicago Cubs. I can't say that he is a great pinch-hitter, he doesn't get a lot of chances to get into games. I don't know an adequate replacement for Ward, but any power bat that doesn't have an ego will do.
Geovany Soto - He is a clear winner of the National League Rookie Of The Year Award and did a great job behind the plate. His defense got better as the year went along, but his ability to call a game needs to improve. I see him as a possible 1st basement later in his career, but for right now I like him as the starter.
Henry Blanco - He is making over 3 million a season to play a handful of games. I want his job. I don't think the Cubs will pick up his option for next season, but could re-sign him for a lower amount. He has a decent bat, but doesn't have a certain pitcher he catches, unlike a few seasons ago when he was the catcher for Greg Maddux.
Koyie Hill - He nearly cut his hand off in a freak accident a year ago. He got to play some at the end of the season, but I have always been a fan of game calling ability. He seemed to rejuvenate the pitching staff a season ago when he was brought up from the minors. Hill may not play long-term for the Cubs, but I like him as a player and could see him having a decent career on another team.
I'm going to be commenting on the Outfielders and Infielders on the 40-man roster of the Cubs. I will be evaluating their year and possibly if they are needed for next season.
Alfonso Soriano - The Cubs paid a great deal for him a season ago and over the past two years, he hasn't been completely healthy. I am not sure if he will ever be a 35/35 guy again, but the power numbers should still be there. Soriano needs to be pushed down to the 2nd, 3rd, or 6th in the order in order for the Cubs to turn the corner in the playoffs. He has demanded being kept in the lead-off spot, but something needs to be shaken up. The Cubs needs to acquire a left-handed lead-off bat with a high .OBP.
Kosuke Fukudome - Fukudome started out the season on fire, he was nearly batting .400 much into the first month. He hit a wall around the All-Star break and batted around .200 the rest of the way. His defense kept him in the lineup, but he clearly hurt the Cubs down the stretch. The Cubs would be much-improved if they went out and got a power bat to play right field and used Fukudome off the bench. Fukudome was a bit of an oddity, most Japanese players tend own pitchers in the States for a high .OBP. Fukudome has proven that he has a decent eye, but he sometimes looks horrible while striking out.
Jim Edmonds - Edmonds played well for the Cubs, but he isn't a long-term fix for their center field position. He would be nice to hold onto next season for some at-bats, but clearly shouldn't be a starter next year. He can hit homers, when needed, but his average will be around .250, at best.
Reed Johnson - He was a spark plug for the Cubs after they acquired him mid-season. I watched many Cubs games and in the games that he played, he always made a big catch or had a key hit. I like him better than Edmonds in center, but Pinella didn't use him down the stretch this season. I am not sure if he is in Pinella's doghouse or if he trusted Edmonds more as the season progressed.
Felix Pie - Pie has speed and can cover a lot of ground in center. He hasn't figured out major-league pitching yet and I'm starting to lose hope. He was sent down to Triple-A mid-season and he did very well, even showed some power. He could be trade bait this off-season, but I would like to see him get a chance in spring training and prove he deserves a spot.
Sam Fuld - He didn't show up in the majors this year and probably best known for running full speed into the brick wall at Wrigley in 2007. Pie beat him out of a center field spot in spring training and Fuld struggled at the plate and a hand injury troubled him. He will be at spring training to see what he can bring to the team.
Ronny Cedeno - Lou Pinella seems to be high on this guy. He is mostly used as a pinch-runner, but Cedeno was in the line-up a little more than he should be. He started out the year pretty well, but fell off at the end. He is trade bait with the emergence of Mike Fontenot and Ryan Theriot playing so well.
Mark DeRosa - He has done everything for the Cubs, I'm surprised he hasn't been called upon to work the front gate at Wrigley. I like him as a full-time replacement in right field, but I'm unsure of Mike Fontenot can play everyday at 2nd. DeRosa can play nearly every infield spot and has proven himself as a potential big-money free agent after next season. The Cubs need to make sure they work on a contract to keep him around.
Derrek Lee - I'm not saying that he had an off-year, but the expectations were definitely high coming into the year. The wrist injury that hampered him the last few seasons was 100% healed and a few even picked him as possible MVP candidate going into this year (John Kruk). He hit nearly 20 homers and had a batting average that fluttered around .290-.300 all season. Maybe this is the real D-Lee that the Cubs got from Florida, not the player that tore up pitchers a few season ago. I am just not sure which player will show up from here on out.
Mike Fontenot - This guy looks like he should be a jockey, but could he possibly turn into Dustin Pedroia? He has had moments where he looks like a starter, but it is still unknown if he could put up numbers as an everyday player. For a guy of his stature, he has a swing that could hit 20+ homers a season. It would be a risky move to give him the starter's job at 2nd and move DeRosa to right field. If this team was a .500 team, it would be easy to give the keys to the car to a young player, but the Cubs have high expectations and Fontenot may be a victim of not being given a fair shot.
Micah Hoffpauir - He is a proven minor-league player and was given a shot near the end of the season to come off the bench and had a few shot at starting. He is a natural 1st basemen, but with Derrek Lee secure at the job, Hoffpauir could be moved to right or be trade bait. He clearly has the ability to play in the Majors, but unless an injury, he could be stuck.
Aramis Ramirez - He was the leader of the Cubs this season and was the MVP of the team. He didn't show up in the playoffs, but he did so much for the team this year. Ramirez has the ability to be a 40/120 guy, I think he should keep improving. It may take a contract year to get that productivity out of him, but he will be a top 3 third -basemen in this league. His defense is suspect, but his bat makes his errors go away a little.
Ryan Theriot - He's a .300 hitter, steal bases, has a decent .OBP, but somehow he isn't the lead-off hitter. If the Cubs don't acquire a pure lead-off guy, Theriot needs to be at the top of the lineup. He kind of fell into the shortstop position, but I don't see him losing the job anytime soon. Theriot looks like a future all-star and should be in Chicago for awhile.
Daryle Ward - He is the Lenny Harris of the Chicago Cubs. I can't say that he is a great pinch-hitter, he doesn't get a lot of chances to get into games. I don't know an adequate replacement for Ward, but any power bat that doesn't have an ego will do.
Geovany Soto - He is a clear winner of the National League Rookie Of The Year Award and did a great job behind the plate. His defense got better as the year went along, but his ability to call a game needs to improve. I see him as a possible 1st basement later in his career, but for right now I like him as the starter.
Henry Blanco - He is making over 3 million a season to play a handful of games. I want his job. I don't think the Cubs will pick up his option for next season, but could re-sign him for a lower amount. He has a decent bat, but doesn't have a certain pitcher he catches, unlike a few seasons ago when he was the catcher for Greg Maddux.
Koyie Hill - He nearly cut his hand off in a freak accident a year ago. He got to play some at the end of the season, but I have always been a fan of game calling ability. He seemed to rejuvenate the pitching staff a season ago when he was brought up from the minors. Hill may not play long-term for the Cubs, but I like him as a player and could see him having a decent career on another team.
A New Found Respect For Pharmacists
My girlfriend started pharmacy school last week and I didn't realize how much stuff that they have to know. They pretty much need to know what doctors know and everything else that a pharmacist needs to know on top of it. I'm throughly impressed by the material of knowledge that they need to know.
I know this post was completely random and maybe my readers think that I am posting this to appease my girlfriend. I wish she read my blog 'cause I would earn a few points, but she doesn't.
I know this post was completely random and maybe my readers think that I am posting this to appease my girlfriend. I wish she read my blog 'cause I would earn a few points, but she doesn't.
Labels:
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pharmacist,
pharmacy school,
pills
Song Of The Day - Rise Against (Re-Education Through Labor)
I can't tell you how happy I am that Rise Against is releasing a new album. I have enjoyed this band the last five years and I think "Siren Song Of The Counter Culture" was one of the best albums released that year. Many of you are just familiar with them from Guitar Hero 3, but Rise Against has a catalog of music that is just as good as "Prayer Of The Refugee."
Rise Against is set to release "Appeal To Reason" very soon and I'm sure it will be a Top 10 album the first week of its release. They are one of the pure punk bands to get mainstream airplay. They are better than Anti-Flag (barely, I do love them), and currently more relevant than Bad Religion (I still enjoy those guys). Rise Against can garner airplay through MTV via a major label and proof that major labels can still market to punk listeners, but they are still not great at it.
Go buy "Appeal To Reason" and check out the song "Re-Education (Through Labor)"
Rise Against is set to release "Appeal To Reason" very soon and I'm sure it will be a Top 10 album the first week of its release. They are one of the pure punk bands to get mainstream airplay. They are better than Anti-Flag (barely, I do love them), and currently more relevant than Bad Religion (I still enjoy those guys). Rise Against can garner airplay through MTV via a major label and proof that major labels can still market to punk listeners, but they are still not great at it.
Go buy "Appeal To Reason" and check out the song "Re-Education (Through Labor)"
Boston's postseason dominance over the California/Anaheim/Los Angeles Angels continued last night, with a 3-2 Red Sox victory to capture the first-round series, three games to one. According to a sidebar note with the above-linked article:
The Red Sox improved to 4-0 all-time against the Angels in postseason series, having beaten them in 1986, 2004, 2007, and 2008. Boston has also won 12 of the last 13 playoff games against Los Angeles.
The story begins, of course, with the 1986 American League Championship Series, in which the Red Sox, trailing three games to one, staged an unlikely comeback to take three straight and win the series, 4-3.
Boston then recorded 3-0 series sweeps against the Halos in 2004 and 2007, before winning 3-1 this year.
As I like to point out from time to time, streaks can arise from some combination of (a) sharp ability differences between the two competitors; (b) momentum and other psychological factors (though most statisticians are skeptical of this); and (c) random chance.
The idea that the Red Sox were substantially superior talentwise over the Angels -- for this year at least -- can be safely ruled out, as the Angels won eight out of the nine regular-season meetings between the teams.
The Red Sox improved to 4-0 all-time against the Angels in postseason series, having beaten them in 1986, 2004, 2007, and 2008. Boston has also won 12 of the last 13 playoff games against Los Angeles.
The story begins, of course, with the 1986 American League Championship Series, in which the Red Sox, trailing three games to one, staged an unlikely comeback to take three straight and win the series, 4-3.
Boston then recorded 3-0 series sweeps against the Halos in 2004 and 2007, before winning 3-1 this year.
As I like to point out from time to time, streaks can arise from some combination of (a) sharp ability differences between the two competitors; (b) momentum and other psychological factors (though most statisticians are skeptical of this); and (c) random chance.
The idea that the Red Sox were substantially superior talentwise over the Angels -- for this year at least -- can be safely ruled out, as the Angels won eight out of the nine regular-season meetings between the teams.
Statistical research tends to show that athletes who have experienced consecutive successes (e.g., made baskets, hits in baseball) do not raise their probability of success on the next attempt, relative to their long-term baserates. For example, a long-term .50 basketball shooter will not be any more likely than .50 to make his or her next shot after making, say, three straight hoops. This runs contrary to the popular belief that the athlete is "hot" and therefore at an elevated rate of success. Another way of conveying the lack of a true "hot hand" is that athletes' instances of several successes in a row tend not to occur any more frequently than runs of several heads in a row (or tails in a row) from large numbers of coin tosses.
Despite most studies' lack of evidence for hot-handed performances beyond chance, however, I have never disputed that athletes may feel something special is going on during their runs of success. One type of perception, until recently (I thought) only in the realm of the anecdotal, is that relevant athletic stimuli (e.g., a basketball hoop, the baseball on the way from the pitcher) look larger or clearer than when the athlete is not in the midst of a streak.
An item from July on the "Nudge" blog, which I did not see until recently, cites evidence that successful athletes really do seem to see their targets as bigger.
The research in question is by Jessica Witt of Purdue University and colleagues, and is entitled "Putting to a bigger hole: Golf performance relates to perceived size" (published in Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, June 2008). The above-linked Nudge posting provides a concise description of the study's details.
In looking up Dr. Witt's faculty website, I noticed that she had published a similar study (with Dennis Proffitt) with recreational softball players ("See the ball, hit the ball: Apparent ball size is correlated with batting average," Psychological Science, December 2005).
The story does not end there, however. In their softball article, Witt and Proffitt cite a study by Wesp et al. (2004, Perception & Psychophysics) that "demonstrated that dart-throwing ability affects perceived size of the target. Participants who hit the target with fewer attempts selected larger circles as matching the size of the target than participants who were not as successful" (p. 938).
My apologies for not noticing these studies earlier, but better late than never!
Despite most studies' lack of evidence for hot-handed performances beyond chance, however, I have never disputed that athletes may feel something special is going on during their runs of success. One type of perception, until recently (I thought) only in the realm of the anecdotal, is that relevant athletic stimuli (e.g., a basketball hoop, the baseball on the way from the pitcher) look larger or clearer than when the athlete is not in the midst of a streak.
An item from July on the "Nudge" blog, which I did not see until recently, cites evidence that successful athletes really do seem to see their targets as bigger.
The research in question is by Jessica Witt of Purdue University and colleagues, and is entitled "Putting to a bigger hole: Golf performance relates to perceived size" (published in Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, June 2008). The above-linked Nudge posting provides a concise description of the study's details.
In looking up Dr. Witt's faculty website, I noticed that she had published a similar study (with Dennis Proffitt) with recreational softball players ("See the ball, hit the ball: Apparent ball size is correlated with batting average," Psychological Science, December 2005).
The story does not end there, however. In their softball article, Witt and Proffitt cite a study by Wesp et al. (2004, Perception & Psychophysics) that "demonstrated that dart-throwing ability affects perceived size of the target. Participants who hit the target with fewer attempts selected larger circles as matching the size of the target than participants who were not as successful" (p. 938).
My apologies for not noticing these studies earlier, but better late than never!
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