2010 NFL Football - Week 1 Betting Picks

The 2010 season starts on Thursday with a great game. It's a rematch of the NFC Championship game when Brett Favre and the Vikings was one or two plays away from going to the Super Bowl. The Saints ended up winning the game and went on to win their first Super Bowl. The rest of the schedule is pretty loaded and should be an interesting week. Here are my betting picks against the spread for Week 1 of the 2010 NFL season.

Minnesota Vikings (+5) at New Orleans Saints (-5) - My pick is New Orleans

Brett Favre hasn't had much practice and he's still having ankle issues. The Vikings will miss Chester Taylor's pass catching ability out of the backfield and Sidney Rice as a deep threat. The Saints appear to be the same team on paper this season and I see them covering this game, because the Super Bowl champ always wins and covers the next season's opener.

Carolina Panthers (+7) at New York Giants (-7) - My pick is Carolina

This line seems kind of off. I know that Carolina wasn't great last season and they lost Julius Peppers, but Matt Moore showed promise and they still return DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. The Giants had defensive issues last year and I'm not sold on either Ahmad Bradshaw or Brandon Jacobs to help make the Giants offensive attack balanced. I see the Panthers ruining the Giants home opener and not only win against the spread, but win outright.

Miami Dolphins (-3) at Buffalo Bills (+3) - My pick is Miami

The Dolphins is a darkhorse to win the AFC East this season, if they can take care of their own business. They need to win their divisional games and the rest should play itself out. The Bills lack blue chip players are nearly every position and will have trouble winning games this season, Miami should thank the scheduling Gods for not having this game in December. The Dolphins win and cover this game.

Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5) - My pick is Atlanta

This line should be higher in Atlanta's favor, but the Steelers are a "public team," so homers for the team bet blindly on their team. The Steelers are without Big Ben and trot Dennis Dixon out there to start. Dixon looked "good" in garbage time last season, but Atlanta is a good football team. The Steelers defense will have to play out of their minds to keep this one close. I am picking the Falcons to cover this game big.

Detroit Lions (+6.5) at Chicago Bears (-6.5) - My pick is Detroit

I really don't feel great that I am picking the Lions. It's not that I don't feel comfortable in doing so, but the franchise has been synonymous with losing for the last decade. The Lions have had a couple decent drafts in a row and some of their younger players are starting to turn the corner. The Bears add Mike Martz in as Offensive Coordinator, but that will a disaster if they can't get better at protecting Jay Cutler. Martz's plays take longer to develop and Cutler will end up on his back more times than any other time in his career. I see the Lions keeping this game close and winning against the spread.

Cincinnati Bengals (+4.5) at New England Patriots (-4.5) - My pick is new England

I know the Bengals made the playoffs last season and I should like them more, but the AFC Central teams didn't show up to play them last season. They swept their division and backed into the playoffs. New England does well when they have plenty of time to study their opponent. Since this game was announced months ago, I see the Patriots taking care of business at home and covering the spread.

Cleveland Browns (+3) at Tampa Buccaneers (-13.5) - My pick is Cleveland

The Browns played themselves out of a top 3 pick last season by winning their last few games of the season. Jake Delhomme steps in at QB and adds a few new weapons on offense and defense. Tampa Bay was another team that scraped the bottom of the league in 2009. Josh Freeman gained a lot of experience last season, but they have a lot of youth on their team as well. The Browns should be able to keep this close and pull out a victory and cover, if Delhomme takes care of the ball.

Denver Broncos (+2.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5) - My pick is Denver

Denver's training camp reads like a MASH unit. Everyone from Elvis Dumervil to Knowshon Moreno have been injured. The Broncos started out red hot last season, but cooled off and didn't even make the playoffs. They added some pieces, but lost Dumervil for the season with injury and traded away Brandon Marshall. The Jaguars had trouble scoring points last season and could be the last year in Jacksonville for head coach Jack Del Rio and for starter David Garrard, if they don't pull out a winning season. I see Denver winning a close game, I would pick them with the money line.

Indianapolis Colts (-2) at Houston Texans (+2) - My pick is Indianapolis

I realize that everyone picks Houston to finally make the playoffs before every season, but having the spread at only 2 points in favor of the Super Bowl runner-ups, is ridiculous. I know that Sage Rosenfels is no longer on the Texans and can't fumble away victories, but the Colts are going to cover this one big.

Oakland Raiders (+6) at Tennessee Titans (-6) - My pick is Tennessee

I realize that one of these years the Raiders will win games like this, but not in 2010. The Titans are still a dangerous team with the speed of Chris Johnson and Vince Young. The safeties have to play in the box to stop the running attack and that could leave Kenny Britt open a few extra times a game. The Titans should win and cover this game at home.

Green Bay Packers (-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (+3) - My pick is Green Bay

The Packers have looked great this preseason and I look for them to keep adding to their resumé this season and cover in Philadelphia. Aaron Rodgers and Greg Jennings should have big games against the Eagles secondary. Kevin Kolb looked impressive last season for the Eagles, but the Packers defense is very tough and will throw out a ton of different looks to confuse the young QB. The Packers are my pick to win the NFC this year.

San Francisco 49ers (-3) at Seattle Seahawks (+3) - My pick is San Francisco

The 49ers are the favorite to win the weak NFC West this season and Seattle looks to be in full rebuilding mode. The Seahawks don't have many blue-chip players yet and will have issues this year winning games. If Alex Smith can hit his receivers and Frank Gore stays healthy, they should have a big season. The Niners will cover this game on the road.

Arizona Cardinals (-4) at St. Louis Rams (+4) - My pick is Arizona

The Cardinals is another team in transition, but won't get much of a test during Week 1. The Rams haven't done much to improve their team in the off-season and lost their best wide receiver (Donnie Avery) to injury for the season. The Cardinals have Derek Anderson as their starting QB and some key pieces were traded or signed elsewhere in the off-season. Arizona should win this game and cover the spread against an even weaker Rams team.

Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) at Washington Redskins (+3.5) - My pick is Dallas

I struggled with this pick the most out of any of the other games on the schedule this week. The NFC East is a toss-up at this point and it will all come down to which team has a better divisional record. The Cowboys have their eyes set on the Super Bowl and the Redskins are definitely improved, but to what extent is still to be determined. This is a true rivalry game and should be intense, since it's also opening weekend. The Cowboys offense is improved and looks like a team ready to take the next step. Both teams have issues at left-tackle, so both teams should be able to pressure the quarterback. The Cowboys are a stronger team, so I am picking them to win and cover.

Baltimore Ravens (+2.5) at New York Jets (-2.5) - My pick is NY Jets

This should be one of the better games during Week 1, since both teams have been picked by experts to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl this season. The Ravens improved their offense by adding receivers to a prolific rushing attack. The Jets improved their team on both sides of the ball, but adding veterans at skilled positions. If Darrelle Revis wasn't playing, I would pick the Ravens to win against the spread, but since he just ended his holdout, I will pick the Jets to cover, it will be that close of a game.

San Diego Chargers (-4.5) at Kansas City Chiefs (+4.5) - My pick is San Diego

It's been a long time since a Monday Night Football game has been played in Kansas City. I can see that energizing the Arrowhead crowd, but that can only do so much for the team. I believe KC is an improved team, but San Diego, even without Vincent Jackson, is a much better team. The Chargers should win this game big and cover this spread at halftime.

These picks are for entertainment purposes.

The Post Where I Predict Super Bowl Things

Super Bowl XLIV or Super Bowl 44 for those who hate Roman numerals, is set to take place this Sunday. The Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints have both went through the hype machine, survived media day, was able to fight through all the taping of the video montages sure to take place during the 15-hour pregame. The table is set and they are ready to eat. I'm here to predict some prop bets that you can wager, if that's your cup of tea.

First, let's explain something first, I can't say that I am unbiased when it comes to this Super Bowl. As I am writing this, I am wearing an Indianapolis Colts sweatshirt that I picked up the last time I was in my homeland of Indiana. I can look past it while picking these Super Bowl Prop Bets, but let's start out with predicting the score.

Colts 31 - Saints 21 - As I am writing this, most sportsbooks have the Super Bowl Odds somewhere around 5 points, so you should take the Colts.

Now for the more odd props that you could wager on this Super Bowl.

Heads vs. Tails - I'm more of a Heads man myself, so I'll pick that.

Coin Toss - The Colts have been pretty luck this year, so I'll say that they will win the coin toss

Team To Receive Opening Kickoff - The Colts will win the coin toss and I think that they will defer to the second half, the Saints will get the ball first.

Team To Commit The 1st Penalty - The Saints are favored (-140) and I think that's the smartest bet

Team To Score Last In 1st Half - The Colts are favored (-140) and Peyton Manning loves those last minute 1st half drives

Will There Be A Safety - The sure bet would be No, but at (-1400) odds, you could probably put a few bucks on Yes at (+800) to hedge a few bets.

Will The Team That Scores First Win The Game - Yes is at (-195) and No is at (+155), I actually like NO here.

Total Interceptions Thrown By Both Teams - I like the Under 2.5, which is currently (-200)

First Turnover Of THe Game, Interception vs. Fumble - I like Interception here at (-170), Adrian Peterson isn't playing in this game

Total Number Of Colts Players To Score (Including Kickers) - It's currently at +/- 3.5, I like the Over on this one, a lot.

Longest Touchdown Of The Game +/- 49.5 - I like the over on this one, it's at (-115), I feel that someone will bust at least one big play.

Over/Under Jersey Number Of Player To Score First TD +/- 25.5 - I LOVE the over on this, more of the receivers have a number higher than 26, expect Marques Colston

I'll write another post about more individual prop bets during the Super Bowl

2009 NFL Preview: NFC South

As I was predicting all the games this season, something stay consistent with 2008, the NFC South will be very close. Last year, nearly every team in the division had the lead at some point in the season. Can Reggie Bush be a showstopper for the Saints? Can the new regime in Tampa Bay keep up with their winning ways? Can Jake Delhomme rebound from a rought post-season and help lead the Panthers to a division crown? Can Matt Ryan survive a sophomore jinx? Check out the NFC South portion of our 2009 NFL Preview.

New Orleans Saints- (Projected Finish 11-5)

Drew Brees had a career year last season, but the Saints fell short of their goals as a team. Reggie Bush missed a good portion of the season due to injury, but they found a potential future star in Pierre Thomas in the process. Deuce McAllister is no longer with the team and they will need Thomas to produce. If he is unable, Mike Bell and P.J. Hill will have to take over. The Saints receiving corps are loaded with guys with great hands. Marques Colston, Devery Henderson, Lance Moore, and Robert Meachem are all due to have nice seasons since Brees spreads the ball around. If their offensive line holds up, their offense will be fierce.

The Saints defense has been their weakest part of their game, mostly their secondary. Scott Fujita and Jonathan Vilma are a good duo at linebacker and Charles Grant and Will Smith should get to the quarterback with efficiency. They drafted Malcolm Jenkins in the first round this summer and they will need him to contribute immediately. If he stays at corner, which is still in question since he would be a nice safety, he will be tested often by NFL quarterbacks. If they can stop the run and be able to play in 3rd and long situations in a dime or nickel defense with added help in the secondary, the Saints will go a long way this season.

The NFC South play the NFC East and AFC East this season and they will have a tough schedule. Both of those divisions are good, but they lucked out since they get the New York Giants, New England Patriots, and Dallas Cowboys all at the Superdome. The other non-divisional games are at St. Louis and they get Detroit at home, you couldn't ask for an easier two opponents. The Saints have a little edge with the schedule and in such a tight race, they should win this division.

Atlanta Falcons- (Projected Finish 10-6)

It's rare that a team can improve as much as the Atlanta Falcons did in one season. They went from 4-12 in 2007 to 11-5 in 2008, a lot of it had to do with the additions of Matt Ryan and Michael Turner. They both produced better than expected in their first seasons in Atlanta. Roddy White and Michael Jenkins improved with Ryan at quarterback as well. Management started to worry about the receivers, but last season changed their mind. I was looking for Harry Douglas to have a breakout year this season, but an injury will keep him out all year. The addition of Tony Gonzalez at tight end will make this offense better than last season, since they barely targeted the position last year.

John Abraham and Mike Peterson are the two veterans on this very young defense. Some of the young players like Jamaal Anderson will need to step up if they plan on staying in the playoff race. I think the Falcons take a small step back this season because of their defense

Atlanta have a tough schedule ahead of them. They had tough road games at New England, New York Giants, and Dallas. Their other non-divisional games are at San Francisco, and home against Chicago, which they should split these games. As I look farther into their schedule, 10-6 may be their best case scenario, but it's definitely plausible.

Carolina Panthers- (Projected Finish 9-7)

The Panthers looked great last season, until Jake Delhomme decided to throw passes to the other team in their playoff game. DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart were a great duo and each saw their share of the end zone. Steve Smith and Muhsin Muhammed contributed and they received better than expected contributions from the tight ends, Dante Rosario and Jeff King. They will need to rely on their tight ends again, since a third-option at wide receiver has yet to emerge, but Dwayne Jarrett may step up and be that option. If the Panthers can keep running the ball on defenses, they will win, but if they get behind and Delhomme has to pass the ball, it could be a long season.

Julius Peppers had a long off-season and finally settled with the idea of being a franchise-tag player this season. He will want to have a great season to garner a huge contract, so Peppers will be a beast this season. Jon Beason and Dan Connor are a great young linebacking corps and should only get better and better. Their secondary could use another impact player, but Chris Gamble and Richard Marshall will need to hold their own against the pass. If Peppers can stay healthy and if they are able to put points on the board, the Panthers will be alright, but Peppers has been known to miss a few games.

Carolina is in the same boat as Atlanta when it comes to their schedule. They also play at New England, New York Giants, and Dallas, and hav a tough non-divisional schedule with Minnesota and Arizona on their schedule. Carolina will had a tough road ahead if they plan on making the playoffs, so I them about a game out of the last Wild Card spot in the NFC.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers- (Projected Finish 5-11)

Jon Gruden is out as the head coach and Monte Kiffin followed his son to the University of Tennessee. Raheem Morris is the new head coach and he plans to implement a new defense and the "Tampa 2" will no longer be ran. That is the biggest difference that is taking place in Tampa, but their quarterback situation is also clear as mud. Byron Leftwich is the leader out of the clubhouse, but Luke McCown is second-in-line, and Josh Freeman is the quarterback of the future. They added Derrick Ward this off-season and they should have a nice three-headed attack with Cadillac Williams and Ernest Graham seeing carries. Their wide receiver corps lacks depth and experience. Antonio Bryant is the #1, but he's dealing with an injury. Maurice Stovall is stepping up his game and Sammie Stroughter is said to be a hard worker. Kellen Winslow will be needed a lot if the receivers don't step up and produce. The offensive line will have their hands full with Leftwich's slow release. He will be on his back a lot this season, they can't get discouraged since many of the sacks won't be the fault of the O-line, but should be blamed on his slow release.

Tampa Bay have cleaned house, Derrick Brooks and Cato June are no longer at the core of the defense. Ronde Barber is the only elite player left from their Super Bowl team. They will have to rely on their young players developing into Pro Bowlers. Gaines Adams and Aqib Talib are the players with the most pressure to produce. It may be a long season for the Tampa Bay defense and may take a year to get the personnel to fully implement the new defensive scheme.

The Bucs have a non-divisional schedule of Green Bay and Seattle, much better than Atlanta and Carolina's schedule. Their regular games against the AFC East and NFC East are favorable as well, since they play a lot of the better teams at home. The easier schedule may be wasted on them, since Tampa Bay may have a hard time notching wins this season. The changeover on the roster and the new coaching staff may lead to some growing pains in 2009.

Do The Saints Want Derrick Brooks?

I play on Twitter all the time and I message Warren Sapp
(@QBKilla) often. He is quite active and he likes to message people during the day. He was a teammate of Derrick Brooks for many years in Tampa Bay and I know that they are still close. He is still a free-agent and I don't understand, he has been a great player. I asked Sapp what team would Brooks fit best with and he answered. Sapp said. "Saints! He Wants To Go There. They Playing Around. Quite Me On That!" Well, I guess I am quoting him on that.

The Saints brought Brooks in for a workout, but did not offer him a contract. He has been petitioning himself for an NFL job and thinks the Saints would be a great fit, but do the Saints want him? My feeling is that the Saints are not interested in him right now. A torn ACL or any other injury to their linebacking corps could change their mind.

Let's look at the Saints linebackers. Scott Fujita is Sean Payton's pet project from when he was with Dallas. He isn't going to lose his spot to a veteran looking stay in the NFL. Jonathan Vilma isn't going anywhere either, he's a talented player and they need him on the field. Scott Shanle is the weak-side linebacker and really held his own last season at the position. Brooks would probably be best fit for the weak-side position, but it really looks like an injury of a starter or a key reserve would only lead to the signing of Derrick Brooks.

I think Brooks can still play, he may have lost a step last year, but you can't overlook his experience. If I were the Cincinnati Bengals, I would sign him. He could help on the field and mentor Keith Rivers and Rey Maualuga. It's a long shot and I doubt Brooks would want to play for a non-contender, but the Bengals should look into it. I hope he can catch on to a team, but if not, he should be in Canton, OH in sometime in the near future.

Time To Support Your Local Blooger

I don't try and hide my love for the McRib. My mother knows this and he made it a point to call me and tell me that my hometown in Indiana now has the McRib. I have been in Ohio for over two years and we haven't had them. Looks like I am going to be making a road trip back home in the next few weeks. Now here's some links to some posts around the blog world.

Roger Clemens' Son Is In Some Hot Water - Babes Love Baseball

An Effin' Short Version of 'Good Will Hunting' - On 205th

Top 5 Most Depressing Bands You Made Popular - Uncoached

Dinner With Mike Ditka, Almost - Luol's Dong

An Interesting Note About Jeff Samardzjia - Mondesi's House

2008 Nickname Olympics - Chicago Bull

Tribute To Don Lafontaine - H8torade

Some Interesting New Orleans Saints "Dialogue" - Kissing Suzy Kolber

College Team Ends 49 Game Losing Streak - SPORTSbyBROOKS

Donyell Is A Sixer - Five Tool Tool

R.I.P. New York Yankees - The Money Shot

Sarah Palin, Alaska's MILF? - Us Versus Them

Was C.C. robbed? - Out Of Left Field

Bloggers Are Not Dorks! - The Ghosts Of Wayne Fontes

Ocho Cinco Is Radioactive - Hugging Harold Reynolds