Are Cubs Better With Carlos Pena?

The Chicago Cubs may have missed out on signing Adam Dunn, so they signed another left-handed power bat to play first-base, Carlos Pena. Pena struck out 33% of the time last season, but he did struggle with plantar fasciitis. Was last season's .196 average due to injury or diminished skills? Are the Cubs a better team with Carlos Pena?

It was no secret that the Chicago Cubs wanted to sign Adam Dunn this off-season. He has murdered them at Wrigley Field as an opponent since he came up with the Cincinnati Reds. He bats left-handed, has excellent power, near the top of the league in on-base percentage, but also near the top in strikeouts. They would have played Dunn at first-base, which has been vacant since they traded Derrek Lee at the trading deadline. Since they missed out on Dunn, they needed to sign another power left-handed first-baseman and they chose former Tampa Bay Ray, Carlos Pena. Pena has many qualities that Dunn possesses, but they differ in two major ways. Pena's batting average and on-base percentage are very poor, but he does bring gold-glove defense to the position.

Pena and the Cubs agreed on a one-year deal worth $10 million dollars. It makes sense for Chicago to take a risk on Pena, since this is more of a tryout. If Pena turns things around and produces, he could get a longer deal after the season.

Pena, 33, will be reunited with hitting coach Rudy Jaramillo, who was the hitting coach with the Texas Rangers when Pena came up in that organization. His best season was in 2007 when he hit 46 homers, batted .282 and drove in 121 runs. He fell off a bit, but he has been selected to an All-Star game back in 2009.

The Tampa Bay Rays will miss Pena's power, but due to their payroll issues, they were forced to let him walk. They are also let Joaquin Benoit, Carl Crawford, and Rafael Soriano go un-signed. The team is also rumored to be trading shortstop, Jason Bartlett for cheaper talent. The Rays loss could be the Cubs gain, but time will tell.

Where will Pena hit in the order? He will probably bat 4th or 5th, depending on where new manager, Mike Quade, moves Aramis Ramirez in the order. The Cubs need to protect Ramirez in the order, something they have tried to do for awhile. Milton Bradley was supposed to do that, but that was a disaster. The Cubs batting order should look a little different next season, since they are attempting to move Kosuke Fukudome. Tyler Colvin had a breakout rookie campaign and he played his way into the starting lineup, making Fukudome expendable.

The Cubs are a more balanced team with Pena in the line-up, but fans have to know that he's a second-half player. If he starts the season off slow, don't worry, he usually turns it up after the All-Star break. Once the weather starts to warm up at Wrigley, he could be a very fun player to watch. The Cubs have no pressure this season, they aren't expected to be a playoff team. The pressure of the Rays being a contender could have gotten to Pena, so a year on the Cubs could turn back the clock...and let's hope so

White Sox Land Adam Dunn

After many experts predicted that Adam Dunn would pick a National League team, he surprised many and picked the American League's Chicago White Sox. Dunn has made it clear that he doesn't want to be used as a designated hitter. The White Sox must have made a promise to the slugger that he will be used at first-base and maybe occasionally in the outfield. How does this impact the rest of the Majors and the team on the Northside?

Dunn and the White Sox have agreed on a 4-year/$56 million dollar deal. Chicago is in need of a designated hitter, even if they promised Dunn that he wouldn't play there, they could be playing a waiting game. Dunn is 31 years old and scouts have said that he would be best used at DH at this point in his career. Even though his defensive skills have dropped off, his bat has not shown signs of slowing down. He has hit at least 38 home runs the last 8 seasons and is an on-base percentage machine. He may strike out over 170 times a season, but he drives in runs and draws around 100 walks a season. His impact on a team is proven and will make the White Sox a better team. He will protect Carlos Quentin, Alex Rios, and Paul Konerko, if they re-sign him.

The White Sox finished 88-74 last season and the addition of Dunn will add some wins to that total. The Minnesota Twins are the cream of the division and this will close the gap between the teams. The Tigers, Royals, and Indians are all teams in transition and I see the AL Central as a two-team race in 2011.

The initial rumors of teams that Dunn would consider had the Chicago Cubs on top of that list. The amount of the contract may have blow the Cubs out of the water or the years of the deal. The Cubs need to wait a few years for a few bad contracts to come off the books before they add a contract like Dunn signed. They are in the market for a left-handed first baseman with power, Dunn would have fit their need. To make matters worse for the Cubs, Dunn has slaughtered them at Wrigley Field and has done very well there. They will see Dunn a few times over the next years during the cross-town rivalry games.

Dunn will do well at U.S. Cellular Field and will give American League pitchers fits, eventually. He has spent his entire career in the National League. There could be a learning curve for Dunn, since he is strikeout prone, it could take him the first half of the season to learn how to hit certain pitchers. The White Sox made a smart move, GM Kenny Williams has been known to take a gamble, but this is close to a sure thing.

Jay Bruce - The Next Dunn or Kearns?

Jay Bruce was the most heralded prospect for the Reds since Pete Rose. The hoopla that surrounded him last season when he was called up was phenomenal. He tore up pitching the first two weeks into the league before cooling off and hitting a little rookie wall towards the end of the season. Before this season, I drafted Bruce in nearly every fantasy baseball league that I am in. He has hit 18 homers so far in 2009, but his average has been hovering around .200 for most of the season. While fielding a ball in the outfield, Bruce broke his wrist and is likely out for 6-8 weeks, nearly most of the rest of the season. I have analyzed Bruce's stats at the beginning of his career. When he was called up, comparisons of Rose, Bench, and Morgan were there, but so far he has not lived up to the hype. Would a comparison to ex-Reds Adam Dunn or Austin Kearns be more reasonable?

Bruce is a much better fielder than both Dunn and Kearns, so the comparison is clearly based on his ability at the plate. We all know that they both hit home-runs out of Great American Ballpark at an alarming rate early in their careers, but it is a hitter's ballpark. Dunn's minor league numbers translated similar into the pros, since he hit homers, walked a lot, but struck out at a high-rate. Austin Kearns spent three season in the minors, but clearly didn't have the home run totals that Dunn put up at the high minor league level. He hit at a better average and didn't strike out as much. Dunn and Kearns are different hitters when it comes to their splits stats when facing LHP vs. RHP. Dunn can hit for power against both lefties and righties, but Kearns did not have any power when facing southpaws.

Jay Bruce has similaries to both Adam Dunn and Austin Kearns early in their careers. Bruce is similar to Austin Kearns, because he has no power against LHP and he does not have a high strikeout rate. Bruce's similarities to Dunn relates to batting average and power. Dunn swings for the fences with every at-bat, Bruces swings for the fences, but not as much. Bruce has not shown the ability to hit for average in his minor league career and doesn't look like he will be winning any batting average during his career. He could end up with a career batting average similar to Dunn, but Bruce has more speed than Dunn ever had in his career.

My final analysis is that Bruce's future is still to be determined. His 2009 season is forgettable and has had a bad luck. I'm not completely referring to his wrist injury, but his BABIP (Batting Average for Balls In Play) is one of the lowest in the league. He has not had the lucky bounces that other players have received this year. I would say that he looks to be more like Adam Dunn at this point in his career, but he could still be a more complete player in the long-term. "Bruce Almighty" may have all the fans in Cincinnati worried right now, but they still need a lot of pieces before the Reds are fending for the NL Central crown. Let's just hope that in five year's time, Bruce isn't playing for the Washington Nationals like Adam Dunn and Austin Kearns.